Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 87593.740686 92399.479040 97200.425961 102353.101195 107723.283203 113151.740666 119050.406333
2024-12-29 80498.335955 87923.856803 95545.355321 103942.133879 112922.640546 122228.799380 132590.581183
2025-01-05 75116.227722 84341.769031 94014.739710 104891.173720 116757.760619 129289.453922 143501.491700
2025-01-12 70377.001952 80893.880112 92121.038594 104962.235117 119205.796471 134483.401603 152071.194006
2025-01-19 66327.993104 77836.795234 90319.159629 104810.469792 121116.279189 138841.549282 159510.360185
2025-01-26 64168.382495 76680.162471 90439.025332 106619.664784 125051.883952 145319.074438 169210.554452
2025-02-02 62301.440342 75697.985932 90616.960950 108368.796364 128817.041032 151533.109756 178573.205306
2025-02-09 60094.495715 74182.825292 90061.408590 109165.356212 131402.167637 156343.407071 186302.118366
2025-02-16 57581.471113 72179.785824 88824.639591 109064.445882 132859.610683 159793.341169 192423.652227
2025-02-23 55660.967648 70780.361600 88206.232192 109605.541922 134996.560410 163978.505938 199366.438998
2025-03-02 53652.616798 69184.867115 87274.744043 109701.701333 136548.435847 167438.634202 205439.327113
2025-03-09 52515.162646 68586.398678 87483.131115 111113.239882 139626.998966 172672.703112 213598.045813
2025-03-16 50459.692223 66818.006381 86251.270837 110778.750756 140629.593258 175492.121509 218975.917808
2025-03-23 49544.330182 66425.665950 86666.282582 112425.258468 144014.305988 181159.282532 227782.139538
2025-03-30 48369.366391 65659.009977 86580.578486 113425.703413 146594.997580 185860.734624 235450.365053
2025-04-06 46816.354580 64356.782453 85780.584283 113499.096408 148007.406910 189134.024322 241394.985479
2025-04-13 45242.409342 62972.738501 84828.432167 113336.973572 149092.243331 191985.349425 246818.580776
2025-04-20 44731.025592 62935.024377 85553.150838 115263.350669 152762.346347 197999.737045 256125.429902
2025-04-27 44224.363516 62878.753016 86235.842124 117125.477697 156352.272600 203929.844396 265362.712126
2025-05-04 43296.004523 62234.749280 86138.392540 117973.380487 158656.419252 208274.551100 272664.998789
2025-05-11 41998.209283 61060.220089 85320.441038 117865.968142 159728.711610 211077.864558 278059.460339
2025-05-18 41053.314396 60327.778296 85050.351139 118441.908102 161653.916499 214939.530719 284779.920611
2025-05-25 39954.876471 59354.776871 84435.689036 118544.256088 162954.354142 218009.440081 290515.260166